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Middle Border Sun
Tuesday June 28, 2011
Posted by: tdepp at 2:49PM EST on June 28, 2011
 I submit that when the full history of the Great Missouri River Flood of 2011 is written sometime in the future, historians will point to this day as either the most critical date in the Corps’ actions or, less charitably, a “day of infamy.” After this date, things begin to quickly go from “we can handle this” to “we’re in deep trouble and water.” Previously, as noted in Part 1 and the posting on the 2010-11 operating plan for the dams, the Corps appeared to underestimate the amount of snowpack and run off well into April 2011. In May, the Corps began continually upping the amount of discharge from the six Missouri River dams, creating one new record after another. In their own words to the public, this is what the Corps told us.
Finally, it appears in early May, the Corps at least publicly begins to realize the scope of the problem: there is just too much water headed downstream. “Based on the current forecast, 2011 has the potential to be the second highest runoff season in our 113 years of record keeping,” said Jody Farhat Chief of the Water Management Division here. “As a result of the volume of water we have already seen come into the system, as well as the much above normal runoff anticipated from the mountain snowpack, releases out of Gavin’s Point Dam will be increased to 57,500 cfs in May.” Within a month of this huge release of water from Gavin’s Point just west of Yankton, S.D. and the last dam in the system, the dam will be releasing nearly three times that amount of water. Further, the Corps presents what they will do (and have done) going forward in 2011—release more water and use the emergency tubes. The Corps expects to maintain those higher releases out of Gavin’s Point through December to allow for the continued evacuation of stored floodwater through the end of the year. Releases from the upstream reservoirs will also be increased as water is moved through the entire system. These higher releases will necessitate use of the regulating tunnels or spillways at five of the six main stem dams. Only Big Bend Dam in South Dakota has sufficient powerplant capacity to meet the release requirement. So, the Corps did tell the public, accurately as of this writing, what to expect. The Corps said they were unexpectedly “slammed” by what appears to be an under-estimation of the snowpack and the rate of snowpack melt. Normally, the mountain snowpack peaks in mid-April, however this year it continued to accumulate into early May. Although it appears to have peaked recently at 141 percent of normal in the reach above Fort Peck and 136 percent of normal in the reach between Fort Peck and Garrison, cool weather coupled with additional snow could push those figures even higher. “With so much water coming into the system, our flexibility to reduce releases for downstream runoff events will be somewhat limited between now and December,” Farhat said. “Our goal is to evacuate the water as quickly and safely as possible so that we are ready for the next flood event. Public safety is our number one concern.” But did the Corps “evacuate the water as quickly and as safely as possible so that we are ready for the next flood event”? Perhaps it is hindsight, but the answer is “no.” As high as releases were out of the dams, they were not high enough for additional significant snowmelt from Montana, heavy rains in Montana in May, or heavy rains in South Dakota in mid-June. At least as far as citizens downstream of Yankton were concerned, it appears the Corps did not drop Lewis and Clark Lake sufficiently for “the next flood event.” Gavin’s Point releases averaged 30,300 cfs during the month of April. The long-term average for Gavin’s during this time of year is 24,800 cfs. Releases will be increased from 45,000 cfs to 57,500 cfs in early May. The reservoir will rise slightly to elevation 1206 feet during the month. Farther upstream, residents in Pierre and Ft. Pierre, S.D. would fare no better, with the Corps expecting a drop in the big reservoir’s elevation, not a massive increase. Oahe reservoir rose 2.5 feet in April, ending the month at elevation 1616.9 feet. It is expected to drop slightly during May, ending the month near elevation 1616.3 feet. The reservoir’s elevation is 0.8 feet higher than it was last year at this time. Oahe releases averaged 24,000 cfs in April. As May would develop, Oahe would become too full for meaningful flood control. Only massive releases would prevent it from overtopping.
At the same time the Corps is painting a relatively positive picture for South Dakota southward, it also issued the above press release noting there would be increased discharges from Garrison, north of Bismarck, N.D. The Corps' Monique Farmer wrote both releases, though it appears that the overall impact of what was described in the two releases was compartmentalized. Unlike the torrent of water flowing down the Missouri, the Corps was releasing information in uncoordinated drips and drabs. “The reservoir ended the month at the highest end-of-April level since the spring of 1997,” said Jody Farhat, Chief of the Water Management Division here. “Higher release rates are necessary to evacuate water already stored in the reservoir from the melt of the plains snowpack and runoff that is yet to come from the mountain snowpack.” The Corps’ Jody Farhat says there will be a drop in elevation in Oahe in the first May 6, 2011 release. But in the second, she notes that there is a whole lot of water heading south to Oahe. Perhaps journalists, the public, and state and local officials should have put two and two together between the two press releases. But there does appear to be, either intentionally or unintentionally, a “hide the ball” approach to the Corps not connecting all the flooding dots in its releases. Perhaps a more integrated single release would have better noted the entire situation. While the Corps says Oahe will drop, Garrison, on the other hand, is quickly running out of room on May 6, 2011. Increased releases are necessary as the reservoir currently sits approximately 2 feet from its exclusive flood control zone. (Emphasis added.) The exclusive flood control zone, which extends from elevation 1850 feet to the top of the spillway gates at elevation 1854 feet, is maintained exclusively for flood control. Water is released from this zone as quickly as downstream channel conditions permit so that sufficient storage remains available for capturing future inflows. Garrison reservoir is expected to crest this summer 2 feet into the exclusive flood control zone at elevation 1852 feet. The top of the dam is at 1875 feet. Again, where did the Corps think was going to happen if they had to release large amounts of water downstream to Oahe? How could Oahe actually drop if the massive Lake Sakakawea also had to drop and drop in a hurry to accommodate more Montana snowmelt? Interestingly, there is an admission that the other reservoirs in the chain are also experiencing high elevations, something missing from the other release on the same date. Similar conditions are being experienced throughout the mainstem reservoir system. Three other Corps’ dams on the Missouri River (Fort Peck, Oahe and Fort Randall) have significant volumes of flood water to evacuate, and all six mainstem reservoirs will see much higher releases in the coming days. The other two Corps’ dams on the Missouri River (Big Bend and Gavin’s Point) have little to no flood control storage and essentially pass inflow. “Our goal is to evacuate the water as quickly and as safely as possible so that we are ready for the next flood event,” Farhat said. (Emphasis added.) “Public safety is our number one concern.” There is again the “next flood event” quote from Farhat. Implied in the quote is an assurance that that Corps understand that more water could quite possibly be on its way—and that they have the situation “handled.”
Meanwhile, a third press release goes out on May 6, 2011 concerning the Ft. Peck Reservoir in Montana, the first dam in the Missouri River chain. So if Ft. Peck is full or will be full and Lake Sakakawea is full or will be full but Oahe Reservoir will drop in May, how is this possible if Ft. Peck too is releasing massive amounts of water? Increased releases are necessary as the reservoir level is currently less than 5 feet from its exclusive flood control zone. The exclusive flood control zone, which extends from elevation 2246 feet to the top of the spillway gates at elevation 2250 feet, is maintained exclusively for flood control. Water is released from this zone as quickly as downstream channel conditions permit so that sufficient storage remains available for capturing future inflows. Fort Peck reservoir is expected to crest this summer 2 feet into the exclusive flood control zone at elevation 2248 feet. The top of the dam is at 2280.5 feet. Even at this point, May 6, 2011, the Corps anticipates that even with the late snowpack melt, there will still be at least some room to spare in Ft. Peck Reservoir. Meanwhile, subtly, the Corps hints that overtopping the dam is unlikely, as the top of the dam is over 30 feet above the top of the spillway gates. May 6, 2011 looks to be the single most critical date in the flooding. The Corps recognizes that the system has more water in it than they anticipated. But they are still assuring the public that the system can handle the expected water. As citizens from Bismarck to Pierre to Chamberlain to Verdel to Larson’s Landing to Dakota Dunes to S. Sioux City can tell you first hand, the system did not handle the water—it is in their homes, businesses, parks, and boat ramps.  Sunday June 26, 2011
Posted by: tdepp at 8:07PM EST on June 26, 2011
Many of the victims of the Great Missouri River Flood of 2011 blame the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for their unprecedented predicament.
 On the other hand, unless you are a hydrologist, trying to make sense out of the Corps’ 2010-11 Master Plan is next to impossible. However, the Corps’ own press releases, however, are not as dense. What was the Corps telling the public and when concerning management of the Missouri River in 2011? Let’s go to the press releases, available at http://www.nwd.usace.army.mil/pa/news/home.asp :
First, the Corps assured the public that there was plenty of room in the reservoirs: The reservoir system is in position to provide good levels of service to each of the congressionally authorized purposes, as well as to be prepared in the event that we experience a higher than normal runoff season. The mountain snowpack is 116 percent of normal for this time of year. Traditionally, about 42 percent of the peak accumulation occurs by January 1. The plains snowpack is above normal over most of the upper Missouri River basin. This statement sounds reassuring and notes at least some anticipation of higher than normal runoff. But then we read a bit later in the release that the Corps did not release as much water from the upstream dams as they didn’t want to cause ice jams below them: Both Fort Peck and Garrison Reservoirs are expected to begin the runoff season less than one foot above their annual flood control pool levels. Due to the need to make adjustments to releases at the reservoirs in December to avoid ice jams, the Corps did not evacuate as much water as was initially anticipated from the two reservoirs during the month of December. Ice jams are a legitimate concern. But when is the last time the Missouri has flooded during the dead of winter because of ice jams post-Pick Sloan Plan?
If nothing else, the headline belies that fact or at least the very strong supposition that the Corps knew 2011 was not going to be business as usual on the Muddy Mo. The following is almost prophetic of what actually happened: We are currently monitoring snow conditions on the plains, which are similar to the above-normal conditions we saw in both 2009 and 2010, said Jody Farhat, Chief of the Water Management Division. Mountain snowpack is running ahead of last year, but the big unknown is the rainfall. Last year’s high runoff in the Missouri River basin and resulting flooding was due in large part to widespread heavy rains. (Emphasis added.) So as of February 8, 2011 the Corps knew or expected these things: 1. Above normal snowfall on the plains. 2. Mountain snowpack running higher than 2010. 3. The Corps obviously can’t predict rainfall but that they have noted the possibility of heavy rains. And 4. The Corps knew from 2010 that heavy rains could cause flooding again in 2011. Again, going back to the 2010-11 Management Plan, where does the Corps account for these possibilities?
One argument that some flood victims and politicians on the Right have put forth is that managing the dams for the benefit of some species of fishes and birds is the culprit that played a significant role in the spring and summer’s flooding. Putting that argument aside for analysis later, it appears the Corps was aware that the lower Missouri either did not need a “pulse” to help the pallid sturgeon spawn or that there was simply too much water that had to be released. As the Corps noted in early April: Runoff from snow and ice that accumulated during the winter months brought more than double the normal volume of runoff into the Missouri River reservoirs during the month of March, prompting the Corps to begin evacuating surplus water from the system. “We currently have more than 5.5 million acre feet of floodwater stored in the reservoir system and more on its way due to the melt of the remainder of the plains snowpack and above normal mountain snowpack,” said Jody Farhat, Chief of the Water Management Division here. “We have started to evacuate floodwater by increasing releases as tributary flows decline. The increased releases will result in stages roughly 2 feet above normal in the lower Missouri River basin, but well within the channel.” So, at least as to this individual “pulse,” it appears the Corps did not place critters above people and property. The Corps also, however, was beginning to get a sense of a somewhat unusual situation. So, score one for the Corps, at least in the preliminary analysis. In Part 2, I’ll examine what the Corps knew and what they said in May 2011 in their press releases as the Montana snows melted and the Big Sky State received unprecedented spring rains in eastern Montana.  Wednesday June 22, 2011
Posted by: tdepp at 1:14PM EST on June 22, 2011
I put this together for my own amusement and not for any group or organization I work for or volunteer for. The following are excerpts taken from the USACE's Missouri River Mainstem System December 2010 2010-2011 Annual Operating Plan, found at http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/pdfs/finalAOP2010-2011.pdf. You read and be the judge whether the USACE screwed up or not this spring and summer. From Page 7: Under all runoff scenarios modeled for the AOP, the March 1 and May 1 System storage is above the Gavins Point spring pulse precludes of 40.0 MAF. The peak magnitude of the March pulse is 5,000 cfs over navigation flows. Based on the technical criteria, the peak magnitude of the May pulse would be 20,000 cfs under the Upper Decile and Upper Quartile runoff scenarios, 16,000 for Median runoff and 12,000 cfs for Lower Quartile and Lower Decile runoff. The actual peak magnitude of the May pulse will be determined based on the actual System storage and the May 1 runoff forecast. The Master Manual technical criteria include safeguards to minimize the risk of flooding associated with the spring pulses. Both spring pulses may be reduced or eliminated due to the downstream flow limits, shown on Plate 3, which are well below the channel capacity of the Missouri River. These flow limits are identical to the most restrictive flood control constraints presented in the previous Master Manual and provide a similar level of flood protection. An additional safeguard is the incorporation of observed and anticipated precipitation into the daily river forecast to provide greater assurance that flows will remain below the downstream flow limits during the duration of the spring pulses. For simulation purposes, the magnitude of the May pulse for Median and above runoff was limited to 10,000 cfs due to the downstream flow limits. Water for the spring pulses will be withdrawn from one or more of the upper three reservoirs and/or Fort Randall depending on releases required to maintain steady to rising pools during the forage fish spawn and other considerations including impacts to historical and cultural sites and the need to evacuate stored flood waters. Prior to implementing the May pulse, the Corps will coordinate with the affected stakeholders. The Corps will also work closely with the USFWS to insure the planned implementation of the spring pulses meet the intent of the 2003 Amended BiOp. From Pages 14-15: Gavins Point releases may be quite variable during the 2011 navigation season but are expected to range from 22,000 to 52,000 cfs. Release reductions necessary to minimize downstream flooding are not reflected in the monthly averages shown in the 15 simulations but will be implemented as conditions warrant. From Page 16: Oahe Dam. Releases in the spring and summer will back up those from Gavins Point Dam. The pool level should be steady to rising in the spring during the fish spawn under median and above runoff scenarios. Depending on the timing and distribution of runoff, a level or rising pool at Oahe is not likely under the two lower runoff scenarios. Page 21: A. Flood Control. All runoff scenarios studied will begin the March 1, 2011 runoff season at the desired 56.8 MAF base of the annual flood control and multiple use zone. Therefore, the entire System flood control zone will be available to store surplus runoff. The System will be available to significantly reduce peak discharges and store a significant volume of water for all floods that may originate above the System. Being at the base of the annual flood control and multiple use zone will also provide full support for all of the other multiple purposes of the System.  Friday October 22, 2010
Posted by: tdepp at 11:11AM EST on October 22, 2010
 She is survived by her husband, Rodney D. Epp of Augusta; her son Todd D. Epp of Harrisburg, South Dakota; her sisters Virginia Tufte and Sally Glidden of Los Angeles, California; sister Betty Beckley of Ainsworth, Nebraska; daughter in law Donna M. Epp of Harrisburg; and grandchildren Sarah Marie Epp and Matthew Zachariah David Epp of Harrisburg. Belle, as she preferred to be called, was born December 24, 1927 in Tilden, Nebraska. Her parents were Micah D. James and Sarah “Sally” Elizabeth Bartee James, both Virginia natives who moved to Nebraska just after the turn of the Twentieth Century, where they farmed near Tilden. Belle’s father died when she was only ten years old, leaving a large family for her mother to support during the depths of the Great Depression in dust bowl Nebraska. Belle graduated from Tilden High School in 1945. One of her classmates was Major League Baseball Hall of Famer Richie Ashburn. After high school, she was involved in a serious car accident and was presumed dead. She broke her pelvis and doctors told her she would never walk again. With the love and encouragement of her mother Sally, Belle was able to walk again, even though her pelvis healed with one side higher than the other. She prided herself on the fact that she could walk without a limp. After jobs at banks in Tilden and Omaha, Nebraska and also at Western Electric in Omaha, she met Rodney D. Epp of Hampton, Nebraska. They wed May 25, 1958 in Omaha. On December 8, 1958, Belle gave birth to Todd David, their only child. In 1959, the couple moved to Yankton, South Dakota, where Rodney began his career with Kaneb Pipeline. While in Yankton, Belle was a devoted mother, tutoring her son in English and writing. She attended nearly every one of Todd’s baseball and basketball games, every swim meet and track meet Todd competed in across the Upper Midwest, and every band concert Todd played in. She often carted a car load of swimmers or basketball players across Yankton or South Dakota to the next game, swim meet, or practice. She was also usually one of the moms who transported Todd and his classmates on field trips and provided snacks as a room mother. Though a house wife most of her life, Belle had wide-ranging interests. She was active in a number of activities, including in Yankton the community concert series, serving as a Cub Scout den mother, and being vice president of the high school band parents association. She was also an avid bowler, a fixture on the Friday Morning Methodist Women’s League. For a time she worked as an elementary school tutor in Yankton, a job she loved. While in Yankton, Belle and her family regularly attended the United Methodist Church. She even braved teaching middle schoolers in Sunday school. In August 1976, Belle and her family moved to Augusta after Rodney received a promotion to Kaneb’s head office in Wichita, Kansas. In Augusta, she was an early supporter and campaign volunteer for U.S. Representative Bob Whittaker, R-Kansas Fifth District, helping him win his first term in 1978. Her sister Virginia, a child prodigy and a Ph.D. in English, called Belle the James’ family’s wit. Belle was always good with a quick quip or funny observation about just about anything. Her verbal abilities also translated into being a voracious crossword and Scrabble player. A visit by any of Todd’s college friends to the Epp household meant a competitive round of Scrabble with Belle. She also prided herself on her Palmer Method perfect handwriting, which looked like it came directly out of the training manual. Belle loved birds and bird watching. Belle always had a birding book nearby and Rodney installed bird feeders near the windows so she could enjoy them. When she lived in Yankton, she accompanied Todd and Rodney on their fishing trips on Lewis and Clark Lake. Throughout her life, Belle stayed in touch with her large family. Family gatherings were often spent around the table telling jokes, singing, or making the secret James family recipe egg noodles. In the mid 1970s, Rodney bought her an electric organ, which she played daily, proud to be able to conquer increasingly difficult pieces of music. She was an avid NFL and college basketball enthusiast, a fan of the Kansas City Chiefs and the Kansas Jayhawks. Often the only woman in the pool, she was known to win the Kaneb NFL pick ‘ems. Belle was preceded in death by her father Micah, her mother Sally, her sisters Margaret, Oneita, Mary, and Kate and brothers Millard and Bill. Visitation will be from 6-8 p.m., Sunday, October 24, 2010 at the Headley Funeral Chapel in Augusta, Kansas. A service will be held at the Brockhouse-Harland Funeral Home in Tilden, Nebraska at 2 p.m., Tuesday, October 26, 2010 followed by burial in the Odd Fellows Cemetery in the James family plot. In lieu of flowers, memorials can be sent in Belle’s name to Harry Hynes Memorial Hospice, 313 S. Market, Wichita, KS 67202. By Todd Epp, her loving son  |
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